Huddle Notes From May 11th, 2020

    By
    Zacary Smucker-Bryan
    -

    The huddles this week focused on statistics on the latest food trends, farm resources, and what the coming months may look like as states open back up.

    Talking Points

    • Farmers to Families Food Box Program
      • $1.2 Billion awarded – A full list of approved suppliers here
      • Not many food-hubs…
        • How can we improve the capacity of food hubs to be able to respond to requests such as the Farmers to Families Food Box Program?
        • Those who were approved are mostly the usual suspects of big food suppliers, so this won’t really help small farms
    • Farm Resources and Opportunities
    • NPR: As Food Supply Chain Breaks Down Farm to Door CSAs Take Off
    • States Opening Back Up
      • How does a pandemic end? Two ways: medically and socially (when society sayswe have this pandemic and we’re just going to live with it)
      • Things are open in Texas but not a lot is going on in Texas
        • Customers are not going to be flocking to businesses when they’re open
        • If restaurants can only open at 25% capacity, you probably shouldn’t open… you’ll likely go backwards faster.
        • Food manufacturing
          • At a lower capacity will also likely go backwards
          • Cheese company in Wisconsin, 300 employees –
            • It’s not whether or not they’re going to have COVID inplants, it’s when.
            • Requiring employees to wear facemasks before entering the property.
            • Hard to get clarity with what businesses are supposed to do. County health inspector said the plant will only be shut down only if it’s what’s best for public health. Nointentions of prosecuting anyone if you aren’t wearing a mask or don’t shut down when you’re supposed to.
    • Consumer Attitudes About How They’re Going to Behave in the Next Month – TheResults: Not Feeling Very Comfortable…
      • Asked: In the next month, will you feel safe doing these things?
        • Dining at Restaurants – 48%
        • Retail Shopping – 44%
        • Shopping at Malls – 43%
        • Going to the Gym – 37%
        • Riding a Plane – 28%
        • Going to Bars – 28%
        • Attending Sports Stadium Events – 25%
        • Cruise Ship Vacation – 23%
    • Ecommerce
      • Amazon is the biggest channel for food, their market share over the past month or so has been declining a bit. Increasing: Target (14%), eBay, Kroger (11%) (Costco 7%). Walmart and Amazon are eroding.
    • Consumers Valuing Natural Foods, Health, and Wellness More in 2020
      • Barriers that will change the natural category landscape:
        • Supply-chain disruption.
        • Contract manufacturers – no new product development
        • Investment capital going into new food brands has frozen.
        • Expected result: Fewer new brands opening up in 2020 – 2021
          • Good for those already in the market!
    • Study: Testing for COVID in diverse Mission Neighborhood in San Francisco
      • Results:
        • 2.1% tested positive; of this 2.1%: 53% were asymptomatic and didn’tknow they were infected; of this 53%: 75% were men, 95% were Latino
        • 82% adversely affected by COVID
        • 10% could work from home
    • Money is Tightening Up
      • Mergers and Acquisitions deals are shutting down
      • Upper Midwest (MN, MT, ND, SD, WI) farm economy stats
        • Over the next 3 months, do you expect lower levels on:
          • Rate of repayment on loans – MN 40%, MT 100%, ND 53%, SD 50%, WI 17% – dairy is resilient!
          • Drop in farm income – MN 80%, MT 100%, ND 82%, 79%, WI 17%
        • Over the next 3 months, do you expect higher levels of:o Loan restructuring – MN 60%, MT 100%, ND 71%, SD 43%, WI 33%
        • What this says: Farm banking is going to be tough, farmland values are not going up, and collateral on balance sheets will be going down.
    • Changes in Channels of Distribution
      • Grab and go snacks – totally dead in the water right now.
      • Shutting bulk section down in retail.
        • Stores with low or 0% waste and co-ops – if bulk section leaves mainstream retail it could benefit these business
      • Mainstream stores are selling meal kits and streaming how-to-cook videos
      • Virtual Reality product – helps buyers imagine what their shelves would look like if a certain product were to be sold at their stores. Since no one is taking meetings right now, big brands are using this with buyers with companies.
      • Channel blending may be around to stay – Restaurants sell companion products with food, wine stores selling groceries, etc.
      • Unemployed actors, comedians, brands are contracting these entertainers to pitch a product to put on Facebook or YouTube
      • Are Victory Gardens Back? Garden sections in stores are nearly empty, community gardens are full, canning jars are gone, also bird seed and bird feeders.Tips
    • Madrona Venture Group’s Back to Work Toolkit
    • Interesting story on open/don’t open decision by a local bar| Read Here
    • Target’s Considerations for Retail Operations Post COVID-19 | Read Here

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